2026 Packaging Raw Material Price Trends Observation: 5 Variables for Paperboard, Ink, and Adhesive

Two months before the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024, a client who makes mooncake gift boxes called in a panic: "Mr. Liu, why are the corrugated boxes so much more expensive this year? I placed my order in July at the quoted price, and now the supplier says they need to raise the price by 18% or they won't ship."

This was not an isolated case. In 2024, corrugated base paper went through a round of sharp fluctuations—rising from 3,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 4,500 yuan/ton by mid-year, then quickly falling back to 3,900 yuan/ton in Q4. LeXiang Packaging's procurement team tracked 8 categories of core raw materials, recording monthly price changes. This article aims to clearly explain the 5 core variables behind this price fluctuation, and provide practical recommendations on "selecting alternative materials based on downstream application."

First, a summary table: price ranges for 8 categories of raw materials in 2024

The following data comes from LeXiang's raw material procurement records from January to December 2024 (desensitized), reflecting the industry average level.

Corrugating medium: 3500-4500 RMB/ton, annual fluctuation 28%. White cardboard: 5800-6800 RMB/ton, fluctuation 17%. Kraft linerboard: 4500-5500 RMB/ton, fluctuation 22%. Coated paper: 6500-7500 RMB/ton, fluctuation 15%. Water-based ink: 25-35 RMB/kg, fluctuation 40% (some specialty inks rose by up to 60%). Solvent-based ink: 40-55 RMB/kg, fluctuation 20%. PUR adhesive: 65-85 RMB/kg, fluctuation 30%. EVA hot-melt adhesive: 30-42 RMB/kg, fluctuation 25%.

Several characteristics can be observed. First, corrugating medium has the largest absolute price fluctuation (28%), but the relative fluctuations of other materials (water-based ink at 40%, PUR adhesive at 30%) are also significant. Second, water-based ink experienced extreme volatility in 2024, with a 40% gap between its highest and lowest points—this is driven by the cost pass-through of pigments and resins. Third, paper-based raw materials followed an annual trend of "rising first, then falling," whereas the trends for inks and adhesives were far less uniform.

5 Core Variables Driving Price Volatility

If you break down the price curves of the 8 categories of raw materials above, there are 5 main influencing factors. These 5 variables are not independent—they transmit to one another.

Variable 1: Pulp futures and inventory cycles.This was the main driver of containerboard volatility in 2024. Pulp is a global commodity, and its price is heavily influenced by international futures markets. At the beginning of 2024, global pulp inventories were at historic lows (production cuts in major producing countries such as Canada and Finland), pushing up the price of base paper; after Q3, inventories recovered and prices pulled back. This is cyclical and will repeat in 2025-2026.

Variable 2: Energy prices (electricity, natural gas, coal).Papermaking, ink, and adhesive production are all energy-intensive industries. In 2024, natural gas prices hit a high in Q2, which directly raised the cost of water-based inks and PUR adhesives. An ink supplier in Shandong told me: "In 2024, our energy costs accounted for 18% of production costs; in 2023, it was 12%." This portion of cost is directly passed on to downstream packaging plants.

Variable 3: Environmental policies and capacity control.In 2024, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong conducted a round of cleanup of "scattered, disordered, and polluting" operations in the packaging industry, leading to the shutdown or production restrictions of some small and medium-sized ink and adhesive factories, resulting in supply-side contraction. At the same time, new national standards on VOCs emissions forced some solvent-based inks to switch to water-based inks, which in the short term increased demand pressure and prices for water-based inks.

Variable 4: Upstream raw materials (titanium dioxide, pigments, resins).This variable primarily affects inks. In 2024, titanium dioxide prices rose by 25%, directly pushing up the cost of white ink; certain organic pigments (especially red and yellow series) were affected by the international supply chain and doubled in price in 2024. MDI (diphenylmethane diisocyanate), the main raw material for PUR adhesives, also experienced a round of price increases in 2024.

Variable 5: Transportation and exchange rates.This variable is easy to overlook, but it has a significant impact on imported materials. In 2024, fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate combined with changes in ocean freight caused the actual landed cost of some imported inks and specialty papers to vary by 10-15%. Export-oriented packaging plants are the most affected by this layer.

2026 Forecast: Which Materials Will Continue to Rise

Based on data extrapolated from 2024-2025, the following projections for 2026 are provided for reference only, as the market is subject to constant change.

Corrugating medium: In 2026, it will most likely fluctuate within the range of 3,800-4,400 CNY/ton, with the overall midpoint roughly 10% higher than in 2023. New pulp capacity will start coming online in the second half of 2025, gradually easing inventory pressure, but prices will not quickly return to the low levels of 2023.

Ivory board: Relatively stable, fluctuating around 6,000 CNY/ton. Downstream demand for ivory board (cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food gift boxes) is relatively stable, with price movements mainly tracking pulp.

Inks: Increasing divergence. Water-based inks are expected to remain at high price levels (25-38 CNY/kg), primarily under dual pressure from pigments and environmental policies. Demand for UV inks will grow, but capacity bottlenecks may keep prices firm.

Adhesives: PUR adhesive, influenced by MDI pricing, is projected to remain at the high level of 70-90 CNY/kg in 2026. EVA hot-melt adhesive will be relatively stable (30-40 CNY/kg). Bio-based adhesives (such as PLA-based) will gradually enter the market, but prices will still be 1.5-2 times that of traditional adhesives.

Specialty materials: For biodegradable materials (PLA, PBAT), supply will increase in 2026, and prices are expected to drop by 10-15%. However, they will still be significantly higher than conventional plastics. Metal materials (aluminum foil, tinplate), influenced by international aluminum prices, remain uncertain.

Practical Guide: Selecting Alternative Materials by Downstream Application

Facing raw material price fluctuations, what procurement teams and factories can do is not "bet on price trends," but rather "use alternative materials to reduce dependence on any single material." The following are the practical recommendations we have provided to clients over the past two years.

Outer carton (corrugated box): limited alternative pathways. 70% of corrugated box cost comes from the paperboard; alternative materials (plastic turnover boxes, honeycomb paperboard) actually cost more. The recommended strategy is to "sign long-term contracts aligned with order cycles" to lock in prices, rather than procuring on the spot market.

Inner box (gift box): the largest alternative space. White cardboard → brown kraft cardboard (cost down 15%, but appearance slightly rougher); lamination → no lamination (cost down 8%, but design adjustments required); PUR adhesive → white latex adhesive (cost down 30%, but slightly lower temperature resistance, suitable for ambient-temperature products).

Shopping bag: white cardboard → recycled paper/kraft paper. Cost can be reduced by 15–25%, and the sustainability narrative is easier to communicate. Suitable for e-commerce, cosmetics, and apparel brands.

Cushioning materials: EPE/EPS → honeycomb paperboard/corrugated paperboard. Cost reduced by 20–40%, with significantly improved environmental performance, but cushioning properties require re-testing.

Ink: solvent-based → water-based. Cost rises 15–25%, but environmental compliance improves, workshop worker health costs decrease, and brand owners are more receptive.

Adhesive: PUR → EVA hot-melt adhesive. Cost down 50% (65 RMB/kg → 30 RMB/kg), but temperature resistance and water resistance are somewhat poorer; suitable for paper-to-paper bonding, not suitable for food packaging or high-temperature environments.

Quotation Strategy: How to Communicate Price Increases to Customers

Rising raw material costs are an objective fact, yet many factories lack a strategy when communicating price increases to customers, resulting in customer churn.

The first principle is "notify one month in advance." Sudden price increases are what customers dislike most. Send a letter one month ahead explaining the reasons and providing the new price list, giving customers time to adjust their expectations. We have compared the two approaches: for the same 12% increase, the acceptance rate among customers notified one month in advance was 78%, compared with only 35% for those given sudden notice.

The second principle is "tiered price increases." For customers with annual orders exceeding 1 million, the increase can be spread over 2–3 rounds of 4–5% each, which is easier to accept than a one-time 12% hike.

The third principle is "offer alternatives." Attach 1–2 alternative material options to the price increase letter, giving customers a choice rather than a take-it-or-leave-it situation.

The fourth principle is "price locking for long-term customers." Offer core customers a quarterly or semi-annual price lock mechanism to share price fluctuation risk between the factory and the customer.

Summary

Packaging raw material prices in 2026 will overall remain in a range "higher than 2023, lower than the 2024 peak." Breaking it down by material, divergence will intensify—conventional material prices will stabilize, while specialty and eco-friendly material prices will still have room to fluctuate.

As a buyer, don't try to gamble on price trends; instead, build an "alternative materials library" and a "long-term price-locking mechanism." As a factory, make your cost structure transparent so customers understand the reasonableness of price increases, while using process improvements to absorb part of the cost pressure. This is the sustainable strategy for coping with raw material fluctuations.

Further Reading: 2026 Double 11 Packaging Observations: 5 New Trends + 3 Failure Cases, Packaging Lightweighting Design: 5 Stages to Cut Costs at the Source, Mono-Material Packaging Design: Why Brands Are All Pursuing a Single Material, Packaging Material Cost Structure: How Much Goes to Paperboard, Ink, and Adhesive